The AUD/CHF pair rallied during the day on Monday, as we saw quite a bit of strength in this particular currency pair. The Australian dollar of course is a far “riskier” currency than the Swiss franc, but more importantly, the Swiss franc is struggling overall as the European Union continues to look a bit dicey at best.
I believe that this is more or less an indictment on the Swiss franc than it is any sign of massive risk-taking in the marketplace, and I believe that the pair will continue to go to the upside. You can see that I have put an uptrend line on this chart, as I think we are trying to find more reasons to start going long and finding support. On top of that, you also can see that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the move higher was exactly where the trend line and the rally coincided for buying pressure. This is a simple and classic type of technical analysis move.
At this point in time, I don’t see any reason to short this market, at least as long as we stay above the trend line. I think that the market will find a considerable amount of support not only at the trend line but the 0.70 level, so in general I don’t see the sellers making any real progress. I think that the next major resistance barrier will be found somewhere near the 0.7250 area, but would not be surprise at all to see this market make it above there. Once it does, I would move my target to the 0.75 handle, as it is the next major resistance barrier on the chart. We will probably be forced to buy short-term pullbacks as they offer value, but ultimately I think this does end up being a fairly strong trend to the upside. I don’t look for explosive moves, nor do I look for sustained ones. On the other hand though, if you have the ability to jump in and out of the market, this might be a good pair to do just that.