This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 11 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.
- Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
- Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let’s take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast November 2015
This month we forecast that the most probable movements are short AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD. This forecast has performed negatively so far, as shown below:
Weekly Forecast 8th November 2015
We made no forecast last week.
This week, we forecast that the AUD/NZD pair will fall in value.
This week saw strength in the USD, and the greatest relative weaknesses were in the NZD, CAD, JPY and EUR, in that order.
Volatility was higher than the previous week. Approximately half of the major and minor currency pairs changed in value by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to be lower this this week as there are central bank events scheduled only for the NZD.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
At the FX Academy, we teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:
Let’s see how trading one of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:
We had expected the zone from 120.28 to 120.00 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work really well. The H4 chart below shows how the price fell to 120.28 early during Monday’s Asian session, rejecting it and forming two inside candles marked at the upwards arrow in the hourly chart below. It would have been a very nicely profitable trade with a fantastic reward to risk profile, and could be running now at a profit of approximately 280 pips.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.