The EUR/CHF pair initially fell during the course of the day on Tuesday, as we meander just below the vital 1.08 level. This is an area that has been supportive and resistive both recently, and as a result it should continue to attract quite a bit of trading action. At this point, it appears to be offering quite a bit of support based upon the large, round, psychologically significant number, and of course the hammer that has formed for the Tuesday session. This is a market that seems to continue to find buyers in this area, and with that I have no interest in selling.
I’m looking at this chart and recognize that the 100 day exponential moving average seems to be attracting a bit of support as well, as the market quite often uses that moving average as an indicator for longer-term trades. If we can break above the 1.08 level, I feel the market should then go to the 1.09 level, and then eventually the 1.10 level.
Swiss National Bank
The Swiss have been clandestinely tinkering about with this currency pair again. They have recently released figures suggesting that perhaps they are buying Euros, which of course means that they are going long of this market. Although I don’t know that they are still doing that, I suspect that is the case though. When you think of it, the Euro has fallen rather significantly against several currencies, but at the same time is still against the Swiss franc. With that being said, I don’t see an opportunity to sell this market at all.
I ultimately believe that this market will not only break above the 1.08 level, but it will clear the 1.10 handle, and then push this market all the way to the 1.20 level given enough time. I don’t think that’s going to be overnight obviously, but quite frankly the collapse that we had previously seen in this market due to the relaxing of the currency peg will be reversed.
