The Canadian dollar fell during the session on Thursday in relation to Swiss francs. However, we have the 0.76 level below, and of course the 0.75 level. That area has been rather important recently, and as a result it makes sense that the buyers should be interested in this market. On top of that, we have the 200 day exponential moving average just below that cluster of support, so I feel that it’s only a matter of time before the market starts going higher on a bounce.
This market shows just how soft the Swiss franc is, as the Canadian dollar of course is struggling. After all, the crude oil markets look very soft, and that is doing absolutely nothing to support the value of the Canadian dollar overall. However, this market continues to show strength, so it seems very likely that the Swiss franc is the reason. With that, I cannot help but notice that several other currency pairs involving the Swiss franc looks the same at the moment, pulling back but very strong in general.
I’ve done analysis today on the SGD/CHF pair, the GBP/CHF pair, and of course this one. All of them are telling me the same thing that the Swiss franc is going to continue to lose value over the longer term. This market of course is over the 200 day exponential moving average, and that is a long-term signal for long-term buyers. I believe that a supportive candle in this area should send this market looking for the 0.80 level over the longer term, but the initial move will probably be back to the 0.77 handle.
On the other hand, if we broke down below the 0.75 level with any significance and momentum, I think at that point the market could fall as low as the 0.7350 level. However, I find it difficult to see that happening without the oil markets raking out to the upside.