The EUR/USD pair did very little during the course of the session on Wednesday, as the 1.14 level continues to be far too resistive. However, the European Central Bank has an interest rate decision today, and more importantly a statement afterwards. With that being the case, the market will more than likely see quite a bit of volatility during the session today. With this being the case, I believe that if we can break above the 1.14 level, we will then reach towards the 1.15 handle. Ultimately, I believe that the 1.13 level is where the trend changes, and if we can get above there, at that point in time this suddenly becomes a “buy-and-hold” type of situation. We will have to see how the market reacts to the central banks words, but we certainly have quite a bit of possible volatility today.
On the other hand, we may get value
It is possible that we pullback from here, but I believe that the 1.10 level will be rather supportive. Because of this, we should have quite a bit of value down in that area, and I would be a buyer of a supportive candle below. I believe that this market has already shown where it wants to go, so unless of course the European Central Bank completely shocked the market, I think any pullback at this point in time will be simply a knee-jerk reaction that can be taken advantage of.
The uptrend line from the ascending triangle is still where I see the absolute floor in this market place, so I think as long as there is an opportunity to buy support between here and there, you have to. Even if we break down a bit during the session, I think that will only offer trades for the super short-term traders, so I will simply let that market fall and look at it as the Euro going on sale. I have no interest in trying to be quick enough to take advantage of any overreaction.
