The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the day on Friday, but turned back around and broke above the 1.13 level. Because of this, I feel that the market is getting ready to head towards the 1.15 handle, and perhaps test that area for resistance. That is an area that should be resistive, so I think this is a short-term move, higher to that level. Ultimately though, I think that a pullback will have to break down below the bottom of the range for the session on Friday in order to start selling. I believe that this market is trying to “preempt” the Federal Reserve announcement later this week. After all, the industry decision will be huge, because a lot of people have been trying to determine whether or not the central bank can do it in September. What’s going to be even more interesting is the statement after though.
Interest rate announcement statement
I believe that the interest-rate announcement is important, but the statement is going to be what people really pay attention to. After all, if the Federal Reserve doesn’t raise interest rates, this will shock the markets and more than likely be enough to push the market over the 1.15 level. Also, if this statement gives the market the idea that the Federal Reserve won’t be able to raise rates in the future, this will more than likely changed the overall trend of this particular currency pair.
The Federal Reserve only raising interest rates one time and suggesting that is going to be a long time before they can do so as well also would be reason enough to think that the us Euro should continue to go much higher against the US dollar. Ultimately, this market looks like it’s trying to go higher and as a result I feel that sooner or later it will get its wish, and the market should change general trend, but in the meantime it will be very volatile.
