The EUR/USD fell during the session on Thursday, as we get ready for the Nonfarm Payroll numbers out of the United States today. Because of this, I believe that there will be a lot of volatility in this marketplace, but do not be surprised if we end up relatively unchanged. That seems to be the way this market reacts to that number, simply jumping around and deciding nothing. However, looking at the charts I recognize that the 100 day exponential moving average below should be dynamic support now, especially considering that the 1.12 level is right there as well. Ultimately, I believe that we will continue to bang around between the 1.12 and the 1.15 levels, but do recognize that we could go as low as the 1.10 level and still find plenty of support. In other words, I think that this is essentially going to be a “buy only” type of event.
Be very careful, keep an eye on short-term charts
Unfortunately, the only way to trade this particular announcement is through the short-term charts. That’s a great way to lose money, but at the end of the day I know plenty of you out there will be trading. I personally do not trade on Nonfarm Payroll number days, but recognize that the Euro seems to be picking up some steam. If we can get above the 1.15 level, I believe at that point in time we are most certainly in an uptrend. I think that’s what we’re trying to decide right now, and that causes a lot of volatility under the best of conditions. This of course is going to only be exacerbated by the employment numbers, but ultimately it is not until we get below the 1.10 level that I’m convinced that we are getting ready to turn back around. At this moment, this market looks like it wants to go higher, so quite frankly I am not going to fight it.
