The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the session on Monday, but turn things back around to form a shooting star. The shooting star of course suggests that we are going to see more bearish pressure, and as a result I have no interest in buying the Australian dollar. Quite frankly, I think that the 0.85 level is essentially the “ceiling” in this marketplace, and I think that any rally that we see in the near term will continue to offer selling opportunities as the US dollar continues to be one of the biggest and best currencies in the world. Ultimately, every time this market rallies, it suggests “value” in the Dollar.
On top of that, the gold markets continue to struggle, so that of course isn’t going to help the Aussie either. Further compounding the problem is the fact that the Asian economies out there aren’t exactly driving commodities higher either, and that of course ultimately comes back to hurt the Aussie over the longer term.
Shooting star signifies further downward pressure
The shooting star that printed for the session on Monday signifies that’s the sellers are still very much in control of this marketplace, and that there is no way whatsoever to buy this pair. Quite frankly, I see so much noise above the 0.85 level, that I think if we get above there, we probably still can’t buy this pair. I believe that this pair has to go down to the 0.80 handle given enough time, as it was the site of a massive breakout to the upside on the longer-term charts. Ultimately, that breakout should offer massive amounts of support for the longer term, and I believe that it is possible that in the beginning of next year we will see buyers step back into this marketplace. I will most certainly be paying attention to the longer-term charts.
Ultimately though, we have to wait to see what happens. In the meantime, I really don’t see any way to be long of this market, and I will continue to sell over the course of the next couple of weeks.
