The CHF/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the day on Friday, but as you can see the 113.50 level offered enough resistance to turn the market back around towards the end of the day. This is an interesting pair though, as it is essentially to safety currencies battling each other. You can see that we are most certainly in a downtrend, and as a result the fact that the market found so much resistance at an area that has been of obvious interest over the last several months suggests to me that perhaps we are going to see selling again. If that’s the case, I believe that the 112 level will be targeted overall.
In fact, I believe that a break down below the 113 level is what’s needed in order to start selling. If we do get that, I more than willing to sell as it goes with the overall trend of the moment, and the fact that the area just above is so resistive.
On the other hand, there is always the other case.
The other case in this particular scenario is of course a break above the top of the range for the session on Friday. If we get that, that’s obviously very bullish sign, but at the end of the day we still have a lot of noise only to the 115 level. With that, it would be very difficult to buy a this market and hold onto it, but with this being the case, I believe that it will take a special the trader in order to hang onto that bullish move. It will be so much choppiness that it will more than likely shakeout most traders, and therefore you have to think of it more or less as an investment.
As far selling is concerned, I believe that we go to at least the 112 level, and quite possibly lower than that. On the longer-term charts, the 110 level is massively supportive, but looks like a very likely target at this point in time. It’s down there that we could see the trend turned back around to the upside if we get the breakdown.
