USD/CAD Daily Outlook- July 17, 2014

At the time of writing, it looks like a good opportunity to go long USD/CAD has come.

The first reason for this is that we have come back to a very long-term bullish trend line going all the way back to the summer of 2012, as can be seen in the daily chart below:

USDCAD 71714

Although we did not quite get back to the trend line before the price action seemed to bottom out and turn bullish, we did get close enough to it to say that it was effectively touched. Let's take a closer look at the price action near that trend line on the daily chart:

USDCAD 71714

Note that by (1) on the 3rd of July, the steep downwards movement had already begun to slow. A bearish engulfing candle was printed, although this was actually the lowest point that the price reached. The next day printed a bullish inside candle, and as can be seen the low of that candle subsequently held two retests, give or take a few pips. The price failed to move down and then at (2) there was a very strong bullish movement off that low. This strong second wave suggested that we are now ready to move up, and bulls can feel confident that the series of lows bolstered by the bullish trend line are going to hold now. There is also an increased possibility of a major trend reversal and the beginning of a long-term upwards move.

There is one problem of course: going back to the first chart posted above, there is also a bearish trend line with a second recent touch above us. It might be that this trend line will hold for a while and push the price back down below 1.07. However it will most probably break, causing a powerful triangle breakout, but it may take a few days for this to happen.

A breakout and then a pull back to what will be a broken bearish trend line would provide an excellent opportunity to add to any long trade, or for a first entry for more conservative traders

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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