The EUR/USD pair fell slightly during the session on Thursday, but as you can see essentially sat still by the time we were said and done. That being the case, the market looks like it’s trying to find a little bit of support just above the 1.35 handle, and as a result we could continue forward in the summer range that we had anticipated previously. After all, I have been talking about the range between the 1.35 and the 1.37 handles for some time. I see nothing on this chart that tells me otherwise.
However, playing devil’s advocate I could see that a break down below the 1.35 level isn’t exactly impossible. If that’s the case, I believe that the market heads to the 1.33 handle given enough time, and possibly even lower than there. In the meantime though, I do suspect that we will continue to bounce around in this general vicinity, and as a result I am comfortable buying the Euro on a break above the top of the range for the session as it should send this market back to the 1.36 handle.
Very little economic data today.
By far, the most interesting and market moving economic data that will come out during the session on Friday, save some type of shock, will be the University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. With that being the case, we could get a little bit of a move in the US stock market, but quite frankly I have very high doubts as to the ability for that to move this particular currency pair. Honestly, I expect a very quiet Friday in most of the currency markets, especially this one. If anything, we could just simply get that aforementioned move to the 1.36 level, as a return to “fair value.”
I believe that the market is probably a bit negative on the Euro, but at the end of the day I think that this is one of those markets that will simply grind back and forth in very short moves. With that, I’m not overly excited but do recognize that a potential buying opportunity could present itself.
