The WTI Crude Oil markets rose during the course of the session on Monday, testing the $104.60 level. We closed at the very top of the range, which tells me that this market is still very bullish, and I believe that this market will make a serious attempt to break above the $105 level. A move above there sends this market looking for the $107.50 level, which is the top of the consolidation area in that region. If we can get above there, I feel that this market goes to the $110 level without too many issues, and that being the case the market should be a “by on the dips” type of situation.
Even if the market pulls back from here, I suspect that the market should have plenty of support below, so there’s really no reason to start selling this market as far as I can tell, and that being the case the market is one that I am “long only” at this point, and see no real scenario worth selling until we break down below the $99 level at the very least, and quite frankly I would feel even more comfortable below the $97 level. With that, I’m essentially just waiting for the market to get me the buy signal that I need.
Don’t fight the trend.
The trend is been very strong for quite some time, and as a result I don’t see any reason why shorting this market would make any sense. Quite frankly, there is so much in the way of upward pressure over the longer term that I think we will ultimately be in a bull market for some time.
Granted, this is the summertime, and that often means that we have markets in a relatively quiet. Because of this, we have to take the markets in stride, and recognize that the market could be very choppy and difficult to deal with. However, I believe that ultimately this is a “buy side only” market going forward and that longer-term trading is probably the way to go.