The EUR/USD pair did very little during the session on Friday after the nonfarm payroll numbers came out of the United States. The addition of 217,000 jobs wasn’t really enough to excite the market one way or the other, and as a result the Euro did very little. In hindsight, it’s probably not very surprising when the pair had done so much on Thursday. Because of the action that we had seen during that session and reaction to the European Central Bank and its announcement, there probably was a certain amount of exhaustion by traders.
Ultimately, I believe that the 1.35 level will offer a significant amount of support, and will more than likely not be broken anytime soon. I think that it is an area where buyers will continue to step in, as it has shown so much in the way of resilience now. With that, I would love to buy pullbacks as they appear, and will more than likely be willing to buying short-term supportive candles, even ones on much lower timeframe charts than I usually bother with.
Summer range appears to be settled.
To me, it appears that the summer range is now in view. In fact, I think that the market is about to get quiet again, and as a result short-term trading will probably be the way to go overall. I think that the Euro will overall have a little bit of an upward bias, but ultimately will shy away from anything even close to the 1.40 handle.
I believe that the 1.3750 level is essentially “perceived fair value” in this market, and as a result we will more than likely be attracted to that level over and over again. I essentially plan on doing “smash and grab” type of trades, getting 50 or 100 pips at a time. Ultimately, this market should bounce around between the 1.35 and 1.40 levels, but at the moment we are so close to the 1.3750 level that I’m hesitant to start buying now. I would prefer to see a short-term pullback, and then I will go ahead and buy. Alternately, if we get above the 1.3750 level, and show some type of support, I would be willing to buy there as well.
