EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals expired without being triggered, as although the price did reach 1.3695 and print a bullish pin bar, this did not happen before the London Close.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%
Entries must be made before 5pm London time today.
Long Trade 1
Go long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart after the first touch of 1.3643.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3740.
Remove 75% of the position as profit at 1.3695 and leave the remainder of the position to run to 1.3740.
Short Trade 1
Go short following confirming bearish price action on the H1 chart after the first touch of 1.3748 and 1.3755 which should both happen within one hour.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3775.
Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3703 and leave the remainder of the position to run to 1.3655.
EUR/USD Analysis
In yesterday’s forecast, I was wrong in expecting that a further move down would require a pull-back to 1.3814 first, but I was right to see the next support at 1.3695. This level was hit during the hour before London closed yesterday, forming a bullish pin bar which saw a move up overnight of about 25 pips at the time of writing.
I would not look for another long there today; it is too soon. I would look for a long if we break that level and move down to 1.3643, which is likely to be good support.
Above us it is likely that the previous support at 1.3748 has now flipped and is ready to act as resistance. This could be an excellent level to look for a short trade following a pull-back, as it is confluent with several factors: a key trend line which should now be acting as resistance, today’s daily GMT R1 pivot point, and the psychological level of 1.3750.
As we are not far from the support and resistance levels mentioned, I would look for confirmatory price action on the hourly time frame.
We have no reason not to have an overall bearish violence due to the strength of the move down, but looking at a long-term chart shows that we are now close to key support and are due some kind of pull-back and probably also a period of consolidation.
At 1:30pm London time, there will be a release of US PMI data which could affect the USD. Later at 3:30, the President of the German Central Bank will be speaking, which might affect the EUR. It is likely to be a fairly quiet morning with more activity in the New York session.