EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signal to go long on bullish price action following the first touch of a bullish trend line was triggered, giving an entry at around 1.3834. Close this trade for profit immediately.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%
Entries may be made only between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Long Trade 1
Go long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart following the first touch of the bullish trend line below.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3838.
Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3838 and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade 1
Go long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart following the first touch of 1.3750.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3838.
Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3838 and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade 1
Go short following confirming bearish price action on the H1 chart following the first touch of 1.3955.
Place the stop loss at 1.3987.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3908.
Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3908 and leave the remainder of the position to run.
EUR/USD Analysis
Yesterday was an interesting day. Things looked bearish following the previous day’s fairly strong downwards move. The release of EUR data drove the price down to the area where the bullish trend lines were converging below 1.3800. The price then rebounded very bullishly from this forming an extremely strong bullish engulfing candle on the H1 chart giving a long signal. The price then continued to rise, equalling recent highs beyond which it was not able to penetrate. Yesterday’s daily candle engulfed the real bodies of the previous 4 days. In fact, the bullish move pretty much took out the entire range of the previous two and a half weeks of action. Yesterday closed above the weekly open from two weeks ago.
These would normally be extremely bullish signs. I did mention yesterday that it is correct to have a default bullish bias on this pair as we have been making new highs and holding lows for a long time now. This pair does like to move slowly so you should not be too quick to see a trend change. However it is significant that we have not yet been able to really exceed recent highs. Having said that the USD data yesterday which gave further impetus to the bullish move (the news seems to have been leaked somehow before its official release) was very bearish for the USD so we are seeing a lot of USD weakness which is the primary factor behind this bullish move. We have more USD data coming later today, and tomorrow we have the king of all the USD data releases, the non-farm payrolls. I do not think we will make really significant new highs before we see the data tomorrow. Until then, the price is likely to range, but is not likely to fall too far.
Another touch of the trend lines would be a good place to look for another long. Above us there is good resistance at 1.3955. As we are likely to range before sentiment is confirmed or changed by further data, I would look to exit yesterday’s long immediately and take what profit there is off the table.
There is no high-impact news due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, at 1:30pm London time the Chair of the Fed is speaking and there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data. Later at 3pm there will be a release of ISM manufacturing data. As there is no data due before the New York open and as we have the non-farm payroll data due tomorrow it is likely to be a quiet morning.