USD/JPY Signal- April 9, 2014

 

USD/JPY Signal Update

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as the price never reached either 103.00 or 104.00.

Today’s USD/JPY Signal

Risk 0.50%

Entries can only be made before 8am tomorrow London time

Short Trade 1

Sell confirming H1 price action at the 103.00 level.

Place a stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 102.75

Take off 90% of the position as profit at 102.60 and leave the remainder to run.

USD/JPY Analysis

Yesterday this pair absolutely plummeted all the way from 103.00 to 101.55, coming close to touching a long-term bullish trend line that was the bottom of the triangle which has been forming since early February. The price recovered somewhat overnight after this dramatic drop, and at the time of writing is trading above 102.00.

There are not really any obvious safe ways to exploit the next likely price movements. The old triangle’s trend lines should not be so very significant now, and the nearest really interesting support level is too far away at 100.88 from the current price to be interesting today.

The only major news affecting this pair that is expected will come this evening after London closes with the release of the FOMC minutes. It is unlikely that the pair will move very much beforehand. As the primary movement looks to be short, I would be prepared to look for a short should we reach the flipped 103.00 level and print some bearish price action off the first touch there.

This pair had become much less interesting to trade recently as it has been ranging for a while. Although the move down looks dramatic, we are still well within the range that has been carved out over recent weeks, so it is hard to take a long-term directional bias one way or the other.

Candlestick analysis of the higher time frames shows a bullish monthly chart but choppy weekly and daily charts, so if you must take a long-term bias, you should probably see the most opportunity on the long side.

USDJPY Signal 4914

There are no high-impact news releases due today concerning either the JPY or the USD. It is likely to be a very quiet day awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 7pm London time.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.