USD/JPY Signal Update
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as the price never reached either 100.88 or 103.00.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%
Entry must be made prior to 8am tomorrow (Tuesday) London time.
Long Trade 1
Enter long following supporting bullish price action on the H1 time frame at the first touch of the 100.88 level.
Place a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 101.30.
Take 75% of the position as profit at 102.00 and leave the remainder to run.
USD/JPY Analysis
Towards the end of last week, we just about broke the inner bullish trend line, which clears the way towards testing a very long-term bullish trend line which has not been touched since the summer of last year:
At the present moment, that bullish trend line is very confluent with resistance which has acted as support over two occasions, at 100.88. Therefore if we touch that level but the pair does not fully break down; it is very likely to produce a bounce up, possibly even an extended run.
There has been a lot of commentary suggesting this pair looks “heavy”. It does partially, but if you look at the closes on a long term chart you can see that we just keep bouncing up quite strongly from the area around 101.00, and there is no necessary reason why such a bounce is not going to happen again the next time that we test these lows. Given the confluence with the long-term trend line, it should be a bet worth making. My colleague Christopher Lewis strongly agrees with me, although he prefers to wait for a daily close before making his trades.
Above us there are good selling levels at 102.00 and 103.00. However these are a little too far away to be of concern to us today.
There are no high-impact news releases due today concerning the JPY. At 1:30pm London time there is a release of US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data. Therefore it may be a fairly quiet morning, although this pair has been very active so that activity might carry through.