March 2014 Signal Recap

We publish Adam’s trading signals daily covering EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. As they are daily signals which are not updated throughout the day, they are conservative, and as such are frequently not triggered. Adam gives either exact prices at which trades should be taken, or trades which should be taken if confirmed by price action at certain prices.

During the month of March, four of the signals given were triggered, producing an overall profit of 0.25%. Following Adam’s free Forex signals since December 2013 has generated a total profit of 0.55% with a maximum drawdown of 1%.

Let’s review the signals that were triggered this month.

Signal 1 – EUR/USD 6th March 2014

The signal was published at 08:01 GMT. It was given as:

Short Trade

Enter short on the first touch of 1.3830 or more precisely, the bearish trend line that can be drawn off the swing highs on the monthly chart. The trend line is descending gently so it should not fluctuate in value by much today.

Place the stop loss at 1.3865.

Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 35 pips in profit. Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3780 and let the remainder of the position run.

The price stormed up that day very strongly, reversing right at the 1.3830 level to the pip and going into profit by 23 pips, before turning around and continuing upwards with renewed strength.

The trade outcome was a loss of the 0.50% risk. With hindsight, it can be seen the essential mistake here was to not move the stop to break even more quickly, as it was correct to expect some sort of bounce off the touch of that long-term trend line. This was the first losing trade since last November.

Signal 2 – GBP/USD 10th March 2014

The signal was published at 08:41 GMT. It was given as:

Long Trade

Enter long with a limit buy order on the first touch of 1.6620.

Place the stop loss at 1.6585.

Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 30 pips in profit. Take 75% of the position as profit at 1.6675 and let the remainder of the position ride.

The trade outcome was a break even result, as the trade did reach 30 pips of profit, but then fell back to its entry level after failing to gain any bullish momentum. This was a good trade and the level of 30 pips was perfectly chosen.

Signal 3 – USD/JPY 12th March 2014

The signal was published at 08:56 GMT. It was given as:

Long Trade

Enter long following the first next bar break of any bullish pin or engulfing hourly candle subsequent to the first touch of 102.60. From one hour following the close of the first hourly candle that closes above 102.60, this trade should no longer be taken.

Place a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 103.29. Remove 75% of the position as profit at this level and leave the remainder to ride.

The trade outcome was a loss of the 0.50% risk. There was no real way to guard against what happened in this format of daily signals, as the level of 102.80 turned from support into resistance, warning that an early exit should be considered. The trade never reached 103.29 and was stopped out for the full loss.

Signal 4 – USD/JPY 13th March 2014

The signal was published at 08:40 GMT. It was given as:

Short Trade

Enter short following the first next bar break of any bearish pin or engulfing hourly candle after a first touch of 102.80. From one hour following the close of the first hourly candle that closes above 102.80, this trade is invalidated.

Put a stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 102.52. Take 75% of the position as profit here and leave the remainder to run.

The trade was triggered at 102.61 with 20 pips of risk and was held over the weekend, with 75% of the trade being exited at 102.52 and the final exit for the remainder of the position being recommended the following Monday morning when the price was at 101.55:

The trade outcome was a total profit of 1.25%. It was unfortunate that the signal gave so much of the position to be taken off so quickly. Watching it live, the entry set up looked excellent, with a pin bar off rejecting the triple confluence of flipped trend line, S/R level, and the 200 EMA (shown in black).

USDJPY H1 4314

 

Total Monthly Profit/Loss

The month ended with a total profit of 0.25%.

There were two losing trades, one break even trade, and one winning trade.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.