EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered and expired as the price never reached either 1.3751 or 1.3955.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%
Entries must be made before 5pm London time today.
Long Trade 1
Enter long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart following the first touch of the bullish trend line below.
Put a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3817.
Take off 50% of the position as profit at 1.3831 and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade 1
Enter long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart following the first touch of 1.3750.
Put a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3817.
Take off 50% of the position as profit at 1.3831 and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade 1
Enter short at the first touch of 1.3955.
Put a stop loss at 1.3987.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3908.
Take off 50% of the position as profit at 1.3908 and leave the remainder of the position to run.
EUR/USD Analysis
Yesterday produced a very bearish engulfing bar that reversed the real bodies of the previous 3 days. Despite that, as the overall ranges have been quite small it may not be as significantly bearish as it sounds. The pair is really just ranging in advance of the important data expected later this week and volatility has been very low.
Although we are still within a long-term uptrend and the bullish trend lines have not been broken down, it is notable that since Draghi’s bearish statement two and a half weeks ago we have not been able to get back above 1.3880 or thereabouts. We are stuck within a long term triangle and the price needs some more sentiment one way or the other to really break out.
It seems very likely we are just going to range until there is some definite news that drives direction. In the meantime the price should bounce off significant support and resistance. We are relatively close to support at the intersection of the trend lines below us, and of course there is the supportive level at 1.3750.
During recent weeks the level at 1.3785 has also proved to be very supportive and today this is confluent with the GMT daily S1 pivot point.
There is high-impact news due today for both the EUR and the USD. At 10am London time there is the Eurostat CPI Flash Estimate. Later at 1:15pm there is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, followed by Advance GDP 15 minutes later. Finally at 7pm there is the FOMC Statement. It is likely to be a fairly active day, at least in the sense of choppiness, but it may take the FOMC Statement to produce any real directional movement.