EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals expired without being triggered as the price did not reach either 1.3840 or 1.3695.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Entry should be made only before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade
Enter short on the first touch of 1.3830 or more precisely, the bearish trend line that can be drawn off the swing highs on the monthly chart. The trend line is descending gently so it should not fluctuate in value by much today.
Place the stop loss at 1.3865.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 35 pips in profit. Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3780 and let the remainder of the position run.
Long Trade 1
Enter long after the next bar break of any bullish pin or engulfing hourly candle following the first touch of 1.3695. After one hour from the close of the first hourly candle that closes below 1.3695, the trade should not be taken.
Put a stop loss at 1 pip under the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit. Take 75% of the position as profit at 1.3745 and let the remainder of the position run until 1.3825.
EUR/USD Analysis
Yesterday was a quiet day, as could have been expected from the fact that we have the most important economic news of the month affecting this pair due for release both today and tomorrow.
The local support held at around 1.3720. What is interesting now is that we are close to a month-long bullish trend line which is today confluent with the support level at 1.3695 and is also fairly close to today’s GMT S2 daily pivot point at 1.3686.
Above us, the well-established resistance level at 1.3830 is today confluent with a very long-term bearish trend line, and as this price is one hundred pips away from where we are now, I am prepared to look for a short touch trade at this level, regardless of the fact that we are awaiting very high-impact news.
A candlestick analysis shows bullishness on all the higher time frames, with the weakest bullishness being on the daily chart.
There are very high-impact data releases due later today. Concerning the EUR, there is the Minimum Bid Rate at 12:45pm London time, followed by the ECB Press Conference at 1:30pm. Concerning the USD, an FOMC member is speaking at 1:15, followed by Unemployment Claims data at 1:30. Tomorrow afternoon the Non-Farm Payroll data is released. Therefore this pair should have a quiet morning until about 12:15 London time when it should start to get lively.