EUR/USD Signal- March 4, 2014
EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals expired without being triggered as the price never reached either 1.3830 or 1.3650.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Entry must be made before 5pm London time today.
Enter short following the next bar break of any bearish pin or engulfing H1 bar following the first touch of 1.3830. From one hour following the close of the first H1 bar to close above 1.3830, the trade is invalidated.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is in profit by at least 25 pips. Take off 50% of the position as profit at 1.3780 and let the remainder of the position run.
Long Trade 1
Enter long following the next bar break of any bullish pin or engulfing H1 bar following the first touch of 1.3695. From one hour following the close of the first H1 bar to close below 1.3695, the trade is invalidated.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is in profit by at least 25 pips. Take off 75% of the position as profit at 1.3775 and let the remainder of the position run.
Yesterday saw a full and bearish inside bar. This was broken slightly to the down side during the Asian session, since when the price has been rising fairly strongly. The EUR has also risen sharply this morning against the JPY and this is widely seen as a reaction to the Ukraine crisis which is boosting the EUR.
By now it is safe to say that following the bullish action last week, we have a new and higher supportive level at 1.3695, which was formerly resistance and has now turned into support. This level has held now for a couple of days so should be supportive if hit today.
Candlestick analysis is still showing strong bullishness on the monthly and weekly time frames, but somewhat weaker bullishness on the daily time frame.
It is possible that we are also currently establishing an even higher resistance turned support level at about 1.3722, but we will not be able to see this until tomorrow.
Note that the weekend gap has still not been filled. These gaps tend to be filled and so we can probably expect an upwards move today or tomorrow. Technically, we are also established in a bullish ascending wedge.
Therefore overall I have a slightly bullish bias, contradicting Christopher Lewis’ more bearish assessment. I agree with Chris insofar as there is a very long-term bearish trend line currently running at about 1.3840, and if we hit this we might well receive a strongly bearish reaction, so I eager to look for a confirmed short at around this level.
There are no economic data released scheduled for today directly concerning either the EUR or the USD, so this pair may have a relatively quiet day.
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