EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals expired without being triggered, as the price never hit any one of the levels 1.3955, 1.3975, or 1.3715.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Entries may only be made before 5pm London time later today.
Short Trade 1
Enter short following a next bar break of any bullish pin or engulfing hourly candle after the first touch of 1.3955. From one hour following the close of the first hourly candle closing above 1.3955, this trade is invalidated.
Put a stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even at 1.3925. Take off 50% of the position as profit here and leave the remainder to run.
Short Trade 2
Enter short following a next bar break of any bullish pin or engulfing hourly candle after the first touch of 1.3975. From one hour following the close of the first hourly candle closing above 1.3975, this trade is invalidated.
Put a stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even at 1.3925. Take off 50% of the position as profit here and leave the remainder to run.
Long Trade
Place a long entry with a buy limit order at the first touch of 1.3715.
Put a stop loss at 1.3680.
Take off 75% of the position at 1.3820 and leave the remainder to run.
EUR/USD Analysis
Following recent bullishness last week, the pair printed an inside doji candle following Friday’s bearish pin bar. This could be seen as an indication of a coming move down. Nevertheless, the price has remained consistently above the significant bearish trend line that was broken to the upside last week, which is indicative of further bullishness, although the price seems to have no impetus to rise right now. In fact, we began the week with a small bounce up from an area very close to the broken trend line, and at the time of writing we are close to it again. Should we get a bullish reaction at the next actual touch of the trend line, it could be an opportunity to go long, but I am not stating that as a signal.
There should be some demand below us though it is hard to say at exactly what level we are likely to bounce at before 1.3715 or another bullish trend line a little way above that price.
Not far above us there are long-term strong resistance zones and the key psychological number of 1.4000, which I expect will prevent us moving up beyond that area for some time yet. These zones may well provide some kind of short opportunity.
Candlestick analysis shows strong bullishness on the monthly and weekly time frames. However as mentioned before, a look at the daily candles suggests at least a moderate downwards move is about to happen.
We are well-established in a widening bullish channel, as can be seen in the daily chart below:
There are no important data releases scheduled today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, at 2pm London time there is the USD-related JOLTS Job Openings. It may be another relatively quiet day for this pair.