EUR/USD Signal- March 5, 2014


EUR/USD Signal Update

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered and expired.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%.

• Entries are to be made between 8am and 5pm London time.

Short Trade

• Enter short on the first touch of 1.3840 or to be more accurate, the bearish trend line that can be drawn off the swing highs on the monthly chart. The trend line is descending gently so it should not fluctuate in value by much today.

• Use a 25 pips stop loss.

• Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit. Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3780 and let the remainder of the position ride.

Long Trade 1

• Enter long upon a next bar break of any bullish pin or engulfing H1 bar following the first touch of 1.3695. After one hour from the close of the first H1 bar to close below 1.3695, the trade is invalidated.

• Place the stop loss at 1 pip below the local swing low.

• Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit. Remove 75% of the position as profit at 1.3775 and let the remainder of the position ride.

EUR/USD Analysis

Yesterday the price rose during the first half of the London session before falling from the New York open from local resistance at 1.3775. The price fell within a few hours to reach local support at 1.3720. The price bounced up at this level and looks to be currently bouncing up a few points above it at the time of writing.

It could be that today’s low has already been made at 1.3725 as this area is supportive. However I see the level a little below at around 1.3695 as being fresher and likely to be more supportive, so I will wait for a further fall down to here before entering any long trades. The level is also confluent with a round number which should help. This level is also close to today’s S2 daily GMT pivot point and is not far from the major bullish trend line of the previous month.

Candlestick analysis is still showing strong bullishness on the monthly and weekly time frames, but much weaker bullishness on the daily time frame.

The weekend gap has still not been filled so a move up to 1.3800 or thereabouts should still be likely to happen at some time this week.

EUR/USD Signal

There are no economic data releases scheduled today affecting the EUR. Regarding the USD, there is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15pm London time, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 3pm, so the New York session may be more active than the London one.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy.