The WTI Crude Oil markets fell heavily during the session on Tuesday, retaking a lot of the gains that the market had during the Monday session. Because of this, it feels that the market is probably going to find a significant amount of support just below, as it has already shown a bit at the $103 level. I personally think that the real support is closer to the $102 level, but quite frankly it’s difficult to imagine this market not struggling all the way down to the $100 level as there is certainly quite a few of supportive areas between here and there.
All things being equal, we believe that this market is going to the $110 level, although it will more than likely take some time. After all, there is a significant amount of noise between here and that area. On top of that, we have just broken out of a massive “W pattern”, so I believe that this market will eventually make it, but there has been so much driving this particular commodity back and forth that it really comes down to who’s paying attention to what on any particular day.
Be aware the fact that headlines coming out of the Ukraine could move this market back and forth. Ultimately, I believe that the Russians simply “pushed things along” when it comes to the value of oil, as this market already looked like it was ready go higher. Because of this, I feel that this is essentially going to be a one-way market given enough time, but there will be hiccups along the way. It really comes down to whether or not you can hang onto the volatility, as I believe that there is a significant amount of money to be made. You could do this in the options market if you can’t handle that type of volatility, or of course if you have the ability to trade the CFD markets, you can always keep a small position. Nonetheless, I see no reason why this market should go too much lower.