EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signal expired without being triggered as the price never hit 1.3830.
Today’s EUR/USD Signal
Risk 0.50%.
Entry must be made before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade
Enter short at the first touch of 1.3830.
Put a stop loss at 1.3865.
Move the stop loss to break when the trade is in profit by at least 25 pips. Take off 50% of the position as profit at 1.3780 and let the remainder of the position run.
Long Trade
Enter long at the first touch of 1.3551.
Use a stop loss of 26 pips.
Move the stop loss to break even when a profit of 25 pips has been reached. Take off 50% of the position as profit at 1.3600 and let the remainder of the position run.
EUR/USD Analysis
Finally yesterday there was a breakout. While it was not completely surprising that it was to the downside, there were a few weak signs that it was going to be upwards. The breakout came with a breach of the lower trend line of the bullish channel following bearish pin bars on both the H4 and H1 charts. The trend line is quite steep and was never retested and it is too far away now to worry about using that line for any new short entry.
For the previous few days we had 1.3690 acting as local support, so there is a good chance it is now going to act as resistance. At the time of writing there is a weak pull-back going on and the price is not really managing so far to get past that number. This is not a signal, but determined shortists could try entering somewhere between the daily pivot just below 1.3700 and 1.36900.
It seems likely there is demand below 1.3600 and I suspect we are going to continue downwards to meet it. Unfortunately there are no really obvious levels to look for longs before 1.3651.
Candlestick analysis is now showing bearishness on all the higher time frames.
There is no important data scheduled for release today related to the EUR. However, concerning the USD there will be Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm London time, and the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be testifying at 3pm London time.