EUR/USD Signal Update
Last Thursday’s signal was not triggered as the price never reached 1.3830.
Today’s EUR/USD Signal
Risk 0.75%.
A trade should be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade 1
Enter short with a limit order at the first touch of 1.3830.
Stop loss should be placed at 1.3860.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit. Take half of the position as profit at 1.3780 and let the remainder run.
EUR/USD Analysis
There has not been much volatility in this pair over recent days.
We are in a long-term uptrend and have also become established within a bullish channel since the end of January, with that channel’s bullish trend line holding easily. We have not retested the broken bearish trend line yet.
I mentioned in my previous analysis that we could expect some local support at around 1.3700. In fact the support came in a little below this at 1.3690 and it may act as minor support again. However I am not looking for a long trade at this level. I see no really strong support before 1.3551, which unfortunately is not a realistic target for the price today. The strong resistance zone from 1.3830 to 1.3860 is still up there approximately 90 pips above us at the time of writing, so it is a realistic target for a short touch trade.
If we see a break below the bullish channel’s supportive trend line followed by a failed retest from the other side, this could be an alternative opportunity to go short, targeting a retest of the old bullish trend line.
Looking at the longer-term candlestick analysis, on all the higher time frames the picture is bullish, but quite weakly so.
Christopher Lewis roughly agrees with my identification of support and resistance with this pair, but he thinks it is too risky to trade at the moment. My attitude is that 100 pips are worth trading for if you are confident of using a stop of 35 pips.
There is important data concerning the EUR that will be released at 9am London time today (German IFO Business Climate) but nothing concerning the USD, so the pair may have a quiet New York session unless the news is dramatic.