USD/JPY Signal- Jan. 6, 2014



USD/JPY Signal Update

Thursday’s signal was triggered by a pin bar on the hourly chart. The trade broke even, as it reached just a pip above the recommended risk-off level of 104.85.

Today’s USD/JPY Signal

Risk 0.50%.

Entry should be made before 8am tomorrow London time.

Long Trade 1

Enter following a next bar break of a pin bar or engulfing bar rejecting 103.84, placing the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

Move the stop to break even at 104.47 and take half the position as profit, leaving the remainder to ride. Take a quarter of the remainder as profit at 104.74.

USD/JPY Analysis

There is important news today for the USD at 1:30pm (Unemployment Claims).

The picture since my previous forecast last Thursday has been unclear. For the first time in quite a long while, a major support level was broken to the downside, this being the level of 104.63, after initially giving a bounce up.

However after approaching close to the 104 level and the nearest bullish trend line, the pair rose sharply, forming a bullish pin bar on the daily chart and closing for the week above the level of 104.63.

Then last night, the pair fell sharply again.

The uptrend is being called into question, but the bullish trend lines are intact so I am seeing this trend as intact. Unfortunately, there are no obvious horizontal levels to enter long at before 103.84. However this is an excellent level as it is currently confluent with a long-term bullish trend line, and close to today’s GMT S2 daily pivot.

USDJPY Signal 1614

Note there is possible resistance below 105.00. If this holds, it adds a significant question mark as to whether the uptrend will continue, at least for a while.


Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.