The GBP/CHF pair is one of my favorites. The reason of course is that it has such wild movement, and features two major currencies, which of course are relatively easy to follow. It is almost like an exotic pair, but with recognizable players. That being said, if you are not careful you can get pounded in his pair though because it does move so quickly at times.
The first thing you need to know about this pair is that it tends to follow risk appetite. The higher the risk appetite, the higher this pair goes. That’s because the Swiss franc is seen as a relatively “safe” currency, while the British pound is a bit “riskier.” (That being said, I don’t exactly personally feel that the United Kingdom is a “risky bet.”) This just shows how fickle the currency markets are.
The shape of the candle from the Thursday session is a massive shooting star, as we saw a significant amount resistance of the 1.49 handle yet again. I think this candle has been a bit exaggerated by the fact that the markets are relatively illiquid at the moment. Trader simply have not come back from holiday, and quite frankly I don’t think you’re going to see any significant amount of money flow into the markets between now and the nonfarm payroll numbers next week. That of course does have an effect on all Forex pairs, and this one of course is going to be no different.
Watch the GBP/USD pair.
Watching the GBP/USD pair is a good way to gauge how strong the British pound is. After all, the US dollar is one of the favored currencies around the world right now, as the Federal Reserve has recently tapered. If the British pound can do well against the US dollar, it should absolutely pummel the Swiss franc. Ultimately, I believe that the pair does go higher, and pullbacks at this point time will more than likely warrant buying opportunities. This is especially true around the 1.47 level as a see a significant cluster down there, so I’m going to let this pair pull back a little bit, and then start buying on signs of support.
