The WTI Crude Oil markets fell during the bulk of the session on Monday, that I would not put too much into the candle itself even though it bounce back to form a nice-looking hammer. This is mainly because of the fact that the Americans were away from the marketplace, celebrating Martin Luther King Jr Day. Because of this, the liquidity for half of the session would have been almost nothing, thereby skewing the importance of the trading day towards the European session.
Having said that, the shooting star on Friday of course does signify that we could get some weakness, and quite frankly I believe the color of the Monday candle more than the shape. In other words, I believe that the negative candle was therefore a reason, and that was there is simply not enough buying pressure to break out and above the noise that we see above.
$96 will continue to be important to me.
It’s not really until we clear the $96 level that I feel that the market could be bought with any serious amount of safety. Because of this, I am actually looking for selling opportunities but am cognizant of the fact that most of the trading over the next several sessions will probably be more the short-term variety. Because of this, a break of the bottom of the hammer that had formed for the session on Monday would be reason enough for me to start selling, probably only aiming for a short-term fall, as I believe there is a significant amount of support right around the $93 handle. It doesn’t mean we can’t go below there obviously, and in fact it would not surprise me at all to see the market retest the $92 level for support. If we break below there, I believe $90 gets targeted next, and then anything below that will make this market look very ugly. I think this is going to continue to be choppy and short-term driven, so if you do not have the ability to trade short-term charts, this might be a market to avoid.
