The WTI Crude Oil markets had a positive session on Friday, but found enough trouble above the $95 level to have me a bit concerned about any bullish moves coming. Quite frankly, I believe that this market is ready to pull back as we continue to meander in these lower regions, and will more than likely attempt to reach the $91.50 level again. The market has been extraordinarily weak, and as a result I believe that it’s much easier to sell this market than buy it obviously. That being the case, I feel that the shooting star suggests that the sellers started to take over towards the end of the session, and because of that I believe that we could see a little bit of follow-through over the next couple of sessions.
The oil markets continue to suffer based upon various fundamental factors, one of which is that the Libyans are starting to produce more oil for the market. This of course increases supply, and as a result drives down price. On top of that, the Iranians are in the middle of the nuclear talks that could possibly free them up to start selling oil in the marketplace as well. That would only increase the supply, which should keep markets relatively soft.
However, let’s be realistic about the Iranian situation.
The Iranian situation will more than likely revert to what we see over and over, which of course is a lack of any real progress. That being the case, I am not overly impressed with the idea of the Iranians putting oil to market, and quite frankly think that this market will probably discount that relatively soon. In fact, that could be the reason we had a slight bounce in the first place. However, the market is without a doubt soft in general, so continued weakness should continue.
If we break down below the $91.50 level, it’s a higher likelihood that we go down to the $90 handle. If we can get below there, this market could really start to come undone. On the other hand, I am not a buyer until we get above the $96 level on a daily close.
