EUR/USD Signal- Dec. 18, 2013
EUR/USD Signal Update
Tuesday’s signals were not triggered and expired.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% on each/any triggered trade.
Entry should be made before 5pm London time today only.
Long Trade 1
Enter long with a limit order at a touch of 1.3695, placing a stop loss at 1.3659.
Take profit on 75% of the position at 1.3731 and tighten the stop by using a trailing stop of 40 pips. Let the rest of the position ride and take half of the remainder as profit at 1.3760.
Short Trade 1
Enter short at the next bar break of an hourly pin or strong engulfing or outside bar rejecting and closing below the resistance level of 1.3830. If this level is not touched and rejected by the same hourly bar, or if an hourly bar closes more than a few pips above this level, the trade is immediately invalidated and should not be taken.
Stop loss at the local swing high or 1.3870, depending upon how close the entry is to 1.3870. If the entry is very close, then the higher of the two should definitely be used.
Take profit on 75% of the position at 1.3755 and tighten the stop by using a trailing stop of 40 pips. Let the rest of the position ride and take half of the remainder as profit at 1.3655.
Major news is expected today for both EUR and USD. At 9am London time there is EUR German IFO Business Climate Data then at 1:30pm there is USD Building Permits data. Most importantly, at 7pm London time there is an FOMC statement and projections that are eagerly awaited by the market and which are likely to strongly affect the USD. Therefore any trades taken should be monitored at this time and if the news is very unfavourable for the trade, it should be exited immediately.
Yesterday saw another indecisive day. Although all the bullish trend lines and support levels are still holding, the pair has started to form a consolidating triangle (see the chart below). It is unlikely that anything decisive will happen before this evening’s FOMC statement.
The medium bullish trend line is intact and later today may also be confluent with last week's low at around 1.3695. I have identified this as a good area to look for a long trade, especially as it is protected by today’s S2 pivot point and two other trend lines as shown in the chart below.
The established resistance zone is still there from 1.3830 to 1.3860 and is confluent with a long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, as well as today’s R3 pivot point, so I am still confident to look for shorts there.
Here is a zoomed-out chart presenting the broader picture: