The EUR/USD pair fell again during the session on Thursday, but as you can see still remains above the crucial 1.36 level. That is an area where I expect see quite a bit of support, and therefore I’m not willing to sell this market. It really isn’t until we get below the 1.35 level and I’m comfortable doing so, even though the market has definitely reacted favorably to the US dollar after the Federal Reserve announced that it was going to do a slight reduction in the bond buyback program. This is tantamount to quantitative easing being tapered off of, but at the end of the day they also stated that interest rates will remain low for a longer period of time than originally anticipated.
I still believe that the Euro will have its own problems, but the market is and quite ready to focus on that yet. There are concerns about deflation in the European Union, so as a result the European Central Bank may have to do some type of monetary easing in the near future in order to the value the Euro again. By doing so, that should drive this pair much lower but I don’t think that’s going to happen in the next few months.
Jobs numbers will continue to push this pair
The jobs numbers out of the United States will continue to be the main driver of this pair, and as a result should be watched. The stronger the jobs numbers, the more likely it is the US dollar continues to appreciate over the Euro. The meantime though, I don’t think that the jobs numbers are going to get drastically higher, especially considering the time of the year. The first couple months of the year tend to be relatively soft as far as historical numbers are concerned in the employment market of the United States. With that being the case, we probably got a little bit of time before we see any serious breakdown. I suspect that this pair will continue to bounce around between 1.36 or so to the bottom, and 1.38 to the top for the next several weeks at least.
