The WTI markets did very little during the session on Monday, essentially reaffirming the fact that the 95 level is going to be a slightly resistive area, while the 94 level will be supportive. Because of this, I feel that this market is trying to show some type of supportive action in general, which should see the market try and bounce for the short term. However, I think that the 98 level will offer significant resistance as well. However, I think that any type of support in this area will have to fight the overall negativity of this market.
The selloff recently has been a bit too much though as far as I can tell, and because of that I think this market is due for a nice bounce. Ultimately, I do believe that the markets will be a bit soft, but the short-term trader will more than likely benefit from a move above the $95 level which should offer them at least three dollars and profits.
Nonfarm payroll numbers
I believe that the nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday will greatly affect the marketplace, as the world is trying to figure out whether or not the Federal Reserve can taper off of quantitative easing. Right now, it does appear that the United States will continue to have a very easy monetary policy, and because of that I think eventually commodities will be bought as the US dollar continues to weaken. That being said though, I do recognize the fact that there is a little bit of a "safe haven bid" in the United States dollar, and as a result expect a lot of volatility.
Ultimately, I do believe that it comes down to the lack of value in the US dollar that will propel this market higher. I do think though in the short term we will find weakness and nine dollars, and we will bounce around in a fairly well defined range, which in turn should turn out to be the "accumulation phase" that we often see before move higher. Expect a lot of volatility, but once we get a bow of the $98 level on a daily close, at that point time I believe that we go as high as $108, but do not expect it to be a straight shot higher.
