The NZD/USD pair rose during the session on Tuesday as all currencies in general gained against the US dollar. This of course was due to the Federal Reserve not being able to taper off of quantitative easing with such poor economic numbers coming out United States, specifically the nonfarm payrolls number. As the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the employment situation in the United States, we now know that simply watching the nonfarm payroll numbers will be one of the most important things to do when it comes to trading Forex.
Expect commodity currencies to do quite well over the longer term, simply because people will exchange dollars for "stuff." The New Zealand dollar is of course a commodity currency, so I expect this market to go much higher. In fact, if we can break the top of the range from the Tuesday session, I am more than comfortable buying this pair and holding onto it until we hit the 0.90 handle, even though it will probably take several weeks.
Pay attention to Asia as well.
Although it is well-known that the Australian supply the Asians with quite a bit of their building materials, what is less known is that the Kiwis supply Asians with a lot of their soft commodities. In other words, more protein is bought out of New Zealand when times are good in Asia, and it appears that the Asian economies are starting to do a little bit better. Think of New Zealand much like you think of some of the breadbasket states in the United States, only apply that to Asia.
Going forward, I believe that this market will continue to enjoy upward momentum and I believe also that we could see the continuation of the move higher going forward. This market will offer pullback from time to time, but I think it will be nice buying opportunities for at least the next five handles. I would not be surprised see this market eventually go to parity, especially if we can get poor economic numbers as far as employment is concerned of the United States for another year or two. In the meantime though, I'm just looking at the next 500 pips, and they seem to be upward.
