By: Matt Fanning
Gold was off $10 on Monday, currently at 1322 (as of 430 PM EST). Using the 1200 low close and current bottom, Gold recently bounced directly off the 50% retracement level, at 1306, and met resistance at 23.6%, or 1365. That makes the current range to hold a 3 month rally 1306 – 1365. The 50% retrace for this level is 1332, which is also near its 50 day of 1343.
A break above 1332 would also put Gold right back within a 3 month trading range, from that 1200 low and the 1417 high in late August. Gold needs to break through this current 1365 resistance level, which has failed a few times now. If it does, we could see a retest of that 1417 level, and if can break there, we could see this uptrend continue to 1476, resistance from May.
MACD has been in a clear bearish (overbought) trend, since it started losing its divergence right after that 1417 top area. This divergence, as the price seems to be doing, is starting to stabilize, which is starting to show a possible reversal in the current pullback. This would need to be confirmed over the next few sessions, but we do have a matching stat of 13 days of negative divergence, matching June’s pullback. A close above 1332 would be strong technically, as a Fibonacci level and would also confirm this MACD reversal.
For relative strength, it’s definitely decision time. Looking at the RSIwilder, Gold found support recently, matching the hold in price around 1306. We bounced quickly, and have backed off over the last few sessions. A hold here would be make for a trend of higher lows in relative strength and help boost the metal through 1332.
Full Disclosure: FVAM is long Gold via GLD