EEM Signal - August 12, 2013
By: Andrew Keene
EEM, the fourth largest U.S. ETF ranked by assets which invests in emerging markets, hopes to capitalize on the recent growth in Asia, but experts cite excessive volatility and the strength of developed market ETFs as potential downfalls for EEM. While the price swings have little impact on long-term investors, excess volatility can spur bigger losses if clients trade in times of market turmoil,” making EEM a tricky fund to manipulate for most investors. Other stock analysts show that tools such as PMIs (purchasing managers indices) also reveal EEM to not be as strong as most think. PMIs are measurements of how other investors feel about a given stock, and they incorporate factors such as productivity, volume of purchases, and inventory levels.
Most new markets like Brazil, India, and China which are cited for recent strong growth and stabilizing economies are at or below the 50% PMI level, which means that investors expect virtually no change in future growth for these markets. This is a bearish sign for EEM because this ETF heavily depends on those Asian markets to stay afloat. Also, the fact that other developed market ETFs like EFA have increased 10% YTD while EEM has decreased 12% in the same time period due to losses across all 10 of its sectors does not bode well for future investor optimism.
My Trade: Selling the EEM September 39.5-40.5 Bear Call Spread for $.45
Selling the EEM Sep 30.5 Calls and buying the Sep 40.5 Calls
Risk: $55 per 1 lot
Reward: $45 per 1 lot
I like this trade, because with the EEM sitting at $39.65, I make money on this trade if the stock goes down, flat, or up less 1% by September expiration.