FXY JPY Signal - June 17, 2013

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By: Andrew Keene

FXY is currently down 8.21% YTD with an overall decrease in its growth since September of 2012. There have been brief, sharp spikes of growth once every month since March 2013, and currently growth in July for FXY is in a positive direction and has increased 1.72% overall during the past three months. However, long term views of FXY stock trends show that it really has no hope for going anywhere but down. Just today, FXY is down .69% since its opening at $103.31, which is the second highest opening price in the past month. Right from the start, FXY dropped to under $103.25 and has not risen above that all day. Two months ago FXY experienced a low point ($94.38) it had not seen since late 2008, and though that was the worst of the downward slide starting in September 2012, recovery since then may be slumping down again by the end of this month. Reasons for Japan’s current inflation can be accredited to hiked food prices, attempts to stabilize the housing market, and soaring fuel / energy costs, all of which chip away at the purchasing power of the yen.

Lets play this to the Short side, but let’s give the trade some time and get a Great Risk vs. Reward set-up:

My Trade: Buying the FXY September 100-93 Put Spread for $1.35
Risk: $135 per 1 lot
Reward: $565 per 1 lot
Reward to Risk Set-up: 4.2-1
Breakeven: $98.65

Andrew Keene spent 10 years as an independent equity options trader on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange, during which he spent the majority of his time as a market-maker for over 125 stocks. Andrew currently trades futures, currencies and commodities. When he's not trading, Andrew appears on top business television shows including CNBC's Squawk on the Street, Street Smart on Bloomberg TV and First Business, a show that is syndicated across the United States. Andrew graduated from the University of Illinois with a degree in Finance with a concentration in Accountancy.