The EUR/USD pair fell during the session again on Thursday as the weakness in the Euro continues. It has become obvious that the 1.30 is the beginning of serious resistance, and in my opinion runs all the way to the 1.35 level. Sure, we've seen the price of the Euro rise above the 1.30 level, but it is been noisy at best north of that handle.
There is an up trending line that the market has been following since early September, and it lines up nicely with the 1.29 handle. Is because of this that I think a print and daily close below 1.29 would be extremely bearish for the Euro. If we get that, I would be extremely and aggressively short of this pair.
I believe that the situation in Europe hasn't gotten any better; this is simply slipped out of the headlines. The world is currently paying attention to the United States and will be until at least the end of the election. With this in mind, and the fact that the jobs numbers coming out later today, this could be a very volatile currency pair.
Bearish
I'm extremely bearish of the Euro in that is something that anybody that reads these articles certainly knows by now. Because of this, I cannot find a situation where I feel like buying this currency pair is the right thing to do. In fact, it does of all the noise above; I believe that there are a lot of people in there that feel the same way. Once I see that the 1.29 level has been broken on a daily close, I think this will become a longer-term short.
There is always going to be a certain amount of “hopium” when it comes to the Euro. I'm not sure exactly why, but is simply seems to be ingrained into the marketplace's psyche. Perhaps it's just what people do, as is a matter of habit. However, I think that sooner or later people were going to come to grips with the fact of how broken the whole European Union really is, and we will have a serious fall. In the meantime, I can only be patient.