The AUD/USD pair had a fairly quiet session during the Thursday trading hours as the Americans celebrated Thanksgiving. Because of this, the liquidity would have been light during the North American trading session, and as a result we may have had a little bit of a misleading calmness in the marketplace.
However, we did manage to form an indecisive candle, it which of course was right underneath the 1.04 level. This level is very interesting to me as it is the "midpoint" between the top and bottom of a much larger consolidation area. I essentially think this is a consolidation between 1.02 and 1.06 as the market tries to decide which direction to move the Aussie dollar. Having said that, I have noticed over the years that if a market cannot get beyond the "middle zone" of the consolidation area, it can often lead to a breakout, or in this case a break down.
It is indeed a bit premature to call for something like that to happen, but this has put this currency pair in my sights. Obviously, if we get a "risk off" environment, this pair will start to fall again as the Australian dollar is a favorite way for traders to express a high amount of risk appetite. Because of this, I think this pair is right to fall from bad headlines crossing the wires. With this in mind, I am much more comfortable shorting this market than buying it in this present environment.
Expect little in the way of movement
For today, I expect very little in the way of movement anyways because of the lack of participation from the Americans. It will more than likely be predicated upon some type of negative headline crossing the wires that would send this market much lower, while positive news could send it higher. However, there really isn't much in the way of announcements that are scheduled that should move this market one way or the other. With that being said, I look at this more as a pair to watch over the next several sessions, as the real move will more than likely happen sometime next week.
