CHF/JPY is a pair that is a study in which direction the safe haven trade is going typically. However, with the Swiss National Bank working against the value of the Swiss franc in such a direct fashion, the characteristics of this pair have changed quite a bit over the last year or so.
In a sense, the Swiss franc is no longer a safety currency. This is partly because of the SNB and its handling of the 1.20 floor against the Euro. In an environment where the Swiss franc is being sold off drastically by the central bank, it does have a tendency to make life difficult for traders. However, against the Japanese yen it doesn't have as many of the constraints simply because there are a lot of traders out there buying the Yen at the same time.
While this isn't necessarily one of the more exciting pairs, it does tend to hold up well with technicals. The recent action in this pair has been a slow and steady grind higher, and this may be a reflection on the relative calm that seems to be surrounding Europe at the moment.
Shooting star
During Friday's trading session, we had an attempt to break higher by the Swiss franc but saw it fail in the end. The resulting pullback formed a shooting star, and it should be noted that the epicenter of the shooting star seems to be the 81.50 level which has been both support and resistance over the last year or so.
The Fibonacci studies show that the 50% retrace is just below the bottom of the shooting star from Friday, and the top of the shooting stars just under the 61.8% level. Because of this, it looks like we could be running into a relatively significant amount of resistance. Adding to this is the fact that we appear to be at the top of a rising wedge, and it looks like we're going to be set up for a fall.
Because of this, I am more than willing to start selling this pair on a break below Friday's lows. As for buying, I'm not too keen about it right now as I see the 82 level as the start to a 250 pip resistance zone.