The AUD/USD pair fell recently during the Monday trading session, but bounce to form a hammer showing support at the 1.02 level. This isn't much of a surprise, as the 1.20 area was the previous high, and the fact that we are just now delving into the massively bullish candle from two Fridays ago.
However, before you get to bullish in this pair you should look at some of the things driving. Number one the Chinese economy is by far the biggest customer of the Australians and their raw materials. With the Chinese economic numbers softening of bed, it is very likely that the Aussies will be selling less copper, iron, and gold to the Chinese. This of course will create less demand for the Aussie dollar, and then and therefore drive this pair down.
Although I see the strength in the hammer at the 1.02 level, I am hesitant to buy "risk on assets" in this macroeconomic environment, and it should be noted as well that there is a shooting star on the weekly chart.
Confluence at 1.03
On the weekly chart, we formed a shooting star last week at the 1.03 level to show weakness. The 50% Fibonacci level is roughly where we are right now, and the top of the weekly shooting star is at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. It should also be noted that last week we solve to shooting stars at 1.03, and this suggests that the level is going to continue to fight the bullish amongst you.
While the 1.03 level could very well give way, I would not trust it in till we get a daily close above the 1.0350 level as being legitimate. I see the headline risks out there is far too numerous to feel comfortable owning one of these commodity currencies, unless of course the Federal Reserve enters a new phase of quantitative easing. This could happen later in the week, but more than likely the jobs number on Friday simply wasn't poor enough to push the Fed into that corner. With this being said, at this point in time I suspect we will see a lot of sideways action between 1.02 and 1.03 or so. I am presently flat of this market, but would be willing to sell on a break of the Monday lows.