Q3 2012 Forex Forecast

31 May 2012 11:11:00 AM

By: DailyForex.com


The easiest thing in the world is to predict that the EUR/USD pair will be lower at the end of the quarter. It is because of this that a lot of people will be tempted to say that a reversal is coming. However, there simply isn’t a reason to think that the Euro is going to suddenly be a bastion of string. The pair will probably get a bounce at one point or another, but by now it should be obvious that the problems in Europe are structural, and those kinds of problems take a lot of work to fix. I suspect this pair will rally at one point or another – and I will be selling. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1.20 before it is all said and done.


The Aussie has the misfortune of being highly correlated to risk globally. The economy is highly influenced by the Chinese economy, and that one is slowing. (Albeit from a high level of growth.) None the less, this should continue to weigh on the Aussie as well. The RBA is probably going to cut at least once during the quarter, and the Aussie will fall. However, this currency will be stronger than a lot of other “risky” ones as Australia is a strong economy overall.


This is by far the most difficult pair to predict. The 80 handle will be a place that determines the future of this pair, and although we have seen weakness lately, the Bank of Japan will get involved sooner or later. The reason for the fall predicates on the idea that the Fed could ease again. It is because of this that the Non-Farm Payroll numbers will be the main driver of this pair. If the numbers are consistently good, the Fed won’t be bothered with more QE, and this will push this pair higher. This is what I suspect will happen, but watching that economic indicator will be vital.


The UK has a serious problem. It is much like being in a neighborhood that has a lot of criminals move in – you may not be doing anything directly to bring down the value of the neighborhood, but you are suffering none the less. This is how the UK looks to me at the moment. The European Union is the destination of 40% of the UK’s exports, and this will weigh on the British economy. With global risk being high, I would suspect that the cable pair slips over time, perhaps to the 1.53 level.


Oil markets are giving way as I write this article, but it is obvious that the 1.03 level is important. The move straight up in late Q2 should have been seen as a shot across the bow. The pair should be higher by the end of the quarter, and I am a buyer overall. I think we could see as high as 1.07 before ht end of Q3.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

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