By: Doug Rosen
The EUR/USD been riding down the 21 ema on the daily time frame and has been swing fibbing its way downward. Price is still below the 21 ema on the daily time frame but I am beginning to notice that price has made a couple higher lows. Still, price is below the 21 ema so it is still in a downtrend and I will not consider it in a change of trend until it breaks above the 21 ema. I have price confined in a small triangle trap but it will take a couple days for price to position itself to make a break in either direction.
On the 4 hour time frame price is making its way out of the price channel it has been confined in. The 5 ema looks like it wants to cross above the 21 and 13 ema's. If price breaks out of the channel to the upside I expect price to head up to 1.3508 which is the monthly central pivot overlapped with the 4 hour 144 ema and the upper Bollinger band.
On the hourly time frame price has made its way above the 233 ema and the upper Bollinger band is opened and pointing up. If price breaks 1.3480 I expect price to keep heading up to around 1.3540 area and if it doesn't break that level then I expect price to head back down to the weekly central pivot around 1.3394
On the 15 minute chart price continues to head up and the ema's are pushing price higher and higher. For right now, I will trade with this trend and enter long positions on pullbacks.