By: Doug Rosen
Starting my analysis of the EUR/USD I will begin with the weekly time frame. It looks bearish, but I'm not bearish on this pair because I am bearish on the Swissy and these two pairs are almost exact reciprocals of each other. It is a weekly time frame so just a single candle wick could be over 200 pips so as bearish as it may look, price can still head up.
Moving on to the daily time frame, still once again, looks bearish but the stochastics is in the oversold zone and the 5 ema is pointing up and price is just above the 13 ema so even though it looks bearish, these are bullish signs to pay attention to.
On the 4 hour time frame price is riding the 5 ema upward and the upper Bollinger band is open and pointing up. Yesterday price broke out of the channel it had been trapped in for quite some time then came back down and retested it and is now slightly outside and above the channel which bolsters my confidence that this pair is still bullish at the moment.
On the long term, I think this pair is way over valued and therefore I am long term bearish but for today I expect it to still rise or range. On the hourly time frame price maintains a bullish appearance since it has been riding above the 5 and 13 ema's and the stochastics is pointing up.
On the 15 minute time frame price is above the 55 ema. The EUR/USD is very closely correlated today with USD/CHF, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP but is nearly perfectly correlated with the GBP/USD so analyze those pairs as well for highest accuracy.
At the time I write this analysis price is busting through the weekly R1 pivot at 1.3462 and the monthly central pivot awaits at 1.3508 and the daily M3 is at 1.3489 With all things considered, I am leaning towards bullish for this pair.