By: Doug Rosen
The weekly time frame looks very interesting to me today with this pair. Price is below the weekly 5 ema but is closely approaching the 144 ema. This pair has not been able to close below the weekly 144 ema in an entire year. Over the summer price touched the 144 a couple times and bounced straight up and over the last few weeks price has slightly pierced the 144 and bounced back up.
What makes this time a bit different is the fact that the 5 ema is very close to price and the 144 ema. The 5 ema is bound to push price through the 144 ema this time around as it crosses below it. The lower Bollinger band is opening up a bit and beginning to point downward.
Moving on to the daily time frame price has been coasting down along the ema's staying below the 21 ema most of the time and when it has broken above the 21 is pushed back down by the 55 ema.
On the 4 hour time frame price is in a triangle price trap and about 2/3 the way towards the bottom of this trap. The bottom area of this trap is around .8530 A break below this level may very well confirm the break below the weekly 144 ema. A slight bounce is likely, however, based on my analysis this time around could finally be the breaking point for this pair. Price is currently touching the lower Bollinger band but the 4 hour 5 ema is not far above. A touch back up to the 5 ema which is overlapping the monthly central pivot and the lower Bollinger band opening up to the downside could help this pair make the break at the bottom of the trap as well as the 144 ema.
On the hourly time frame the lower Bollinger band is wide open and price is approaching the weekly M2 pivot where I will expect a bounce up to the 21 ema at around .8570 which should give price the push it needs to head down and make the break I am anticipating.