By: Doug Rosen
In my analysis yesterday I pointed out that on the weekly time frame price opened up just below the weekly 5 ema and that appeared bearish to me and that price would most likely drop, and it did. This week may very well be a bearish week for the EUR/USD.
Moving on to the daily time frame yesterday price touched the 21 ema precisely then dropped. Today it has opened up below the 13 ema and is already below the 5 ema. Do I think this pair will keep falling? Hard to say this early in the week but what I do see is visual support around 1.3156 overlapped with a lower Bollinger band pointing up but it could take a couple days for price to reach that level. Most likely when it does reach it traders will see it as a double bottom and exit their shorts and enter longs and I am thinking around that same time the Swissy the exact reciprocal of this pair will touch resistance and drop causing the EUR/USD to rise.
On the 4 hour time frame I have made some adjustments with my price channel and based on these adjustments price is back within the channel and not far from the top of the channel heading down. The lower Bollinger band is opening up and pointing down and the 5 ema has crossed below the 21 , 13 and 55 ema's and heading down. The monthly M2 pivot is at 1.3328 and is not far below current price action and I expect a reaction which will most likely offer a pullback giving us an entry to enter a short.
Price is also below the weekly central pivot and on the hourly time frame price is riding the 5 ema downward and the lower Bollinger band is open and pointing down.
Price has already made its way below yesterday's low and on the 15 minute time frame riding below the 13 and 5 ema's.