USD/CHF - Breakout or Bounce

Doug Rosen

By: Doug Rosen

Yesterday price made its way up to the .9300 region where I said it will most likely encounter resistance then drop and sure enough it dropped. Price went as high as .9306 then tanked over 100 pips. At this time price is sitting right on a support line that will either trigger a bounce to the upside that will bust previous levels or a break below the trend line to the down side that should keep price falling. The daily 5 ema is beginning to roll over to the downside and the angle and separation between the 5 and 13 ema's is not so strong anymore.

USD/CHF Daily Chart - November 29, 2011

On the 4 hour timeframe the 5 ema has crossed below the 21 ema and has crossed below the price channel price was recently confined in. Price however, has not yet reached the 55 ema which is just a bit below and I expect price to find support at that level before diving down, or, price may just continue to rise up off the 55 ema.

USD/CHF 4 Hour Chart - November 29, 2011

Moving on to the hourly timeframe price is looking very bearish and has already broken below the 144 ema and riding the 5 ema to the downside. The hourly 233 ema exists at around .9174 which is just a few pips below the 4 hour 55 ema and just below that will be the weekly S1 pivot at .9165 so I do expect support to hold a but at that level, possibly offering a pullback for bears.

USD/CHF Hourly Chart - November 29, 2011

Moving on to the 15 minute timeframe price has been riding the 5 ema to the downside and the next area of support I see is yesterdays low at 0.975 which adds to the confluence of support I just mentioned so watch for a reaction at that level that should either take you long or a pullback to offer a short. Shorter timeframes will help determine which way price will go but .9175 is a level to watch out for.

USD/CHF 15 Minute Chart - November 29, 2011

Get another perpective on USD/CHF here.

Doug Rosen
Doug Rosen is a Florida-based Forex trader who became a skilled technical trader through 3 years of intense practice and self-teaching. He now coaches a live trading room and analyzes the market on forextradeplans.com.

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