GBP/USD Slowly Heading Down

By: Doug Rosen

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This pair still appears to be within a range even though it broke out of its price trap, revisited and fell just a bit. On the daily chart it is very obvious that price has been floating around in between the 50.0 and 61.8 fib zone. Daily price action keeps landing on the 13 ema and bounces up but now the 5 ema seems to be rolling over getting closer to the 13 so price may soon start to drop a bit.

GBP/USD Daily 11/8/11

Moving on to the 4 hour chart price has tapped a trend line 4 times already, once again, between the 50.0 and 61.8 fib zone and a complex top has developed. The ema's are bunched together and the upper Bollinger band is not open. Stochastic is also in the overbought zone.

GBP/USD 4 Hour 11/8/11

Moving on to the 1 hour chart I can see that price has bounced off last week's high to the downside and the 5 ema is attempting to cross below the 13 and the stochastics is crossing down and out of the overbought zone, however the Bollinger bands are still closed.

GBP/USD 1 Hour 11/8/11

Finally, I move over to the 15 minute chart I see that price has bounced off to the downside from the daily M3 at 1.6065 and price is currently bouncing off the central pivot point at 1.6036, however, the 5 ema is pushing price down and has already crossed below the 13 and 21 ema's and the lower Bollinger band is open and pointing down. The 144 ema exists just below the central pivot point so I expect some buying pressure in that area and not far below that is the 233 ema and just a little bit below that is the daily M2 at 1.6015.. Stochastics is also in the oversold zone. If price breaks below the central pivot point I will expect some buying pressure due to the layers of support below it but I anticipate the ema's will cross below the central pivot and when price pulls back it will touch the 21 or 55 ema then continue downward, most likely to the 1.5965 zone.

GBP/USD 15 Minute 11/8/11

Doug Rosen
Doug Rosen is a Florida-based Forex trader who became a skilled technical trader through 3 years of intense practice and self-teaching. He now coaches a live trading room and analyzes the market on forextradeplans.com.