Bullish Retracement for EUR/USD

Doug Rosen

The Euro has recently made a very bearish move. Looking at the daily chart it is obvious we broke through a steep trend line and price fell fast and hard and gapped away from the ema's and the 5 has crossed below the 13 and is prepping to close below the 21.

EUR/USD Daily Chart - November 2, 2011

When price fell it made a fib between the 50.0 and 61.8 levels and is now rising up. By the time it makes its way back to the ema's it will have also made a reverse fib at the 38.2 level which also overlaps with a line that has played both support and resistance in the past all of which is in the 1.3825 area. Stochastics is also falling and pointing straight down. Moving on to the 4 hour monthly pivot chart price has broken below the central pivot point and is now retracing back up and at the time I am writing this analysis price is up against the central pivot at 1.3749 with a stochastic in the oversold zone beginning to cross up and the 5 ema rolling over tothe upside I expect price to continue up to the 1.3825 - 1.3850 area which is where there is a concentration of ema's as well as a fib of last month's range and around the 38.2 fib all of which overlaps with the ema's on the daily chart. The area between 1.3825 and 1.3850 is the area I would expect this pair to start to fall again.

EUR/USD 1 hour chart - November 2, 2011

Moving on to the hourly weekly pivot chart the upper Bollinger band has opened to the upside and the stochastic is heading up, however, at this time I am writing this analysis we are poking the M1 at 1.3752 and if we break that level the next area will be last week's low at 1.3797, three pips below the psychological level and it overlaps with the 55 ema which is exactly between the 21.4 and 38.2 fib level of the recent move down. This could be the are that price will roll over at, just 25 pips below the area I mentioned earlier.

EUR/USD 15 minute chart - November 2, 2011

Finally, on the 15 minute daily pivot chart price has busted the daily pivot at 1.3724 and is retesting it at the time I am typing this out. I expect price to come back to the central pivot and bounce then to continue onward to the upside. I expect some resistance around 1.3775 area that should cause another pullback, possibly a decent opportunity to get into a long position that should head up to somewhere between the areas I just mentioned, possible between 1.3800 - 1.3825 which is approximately where price will come into contact with the 233 ema overlapped with all the other areas of resistance I have already mentioned then to head back down.

Doug Rosen
Doug Rosen is a Florida-based Forex trader who became a skilled technical trader through 3 years of intense practice and self-teaching. He now coaches a live trading room and analyzes the market on forextradeplans.com.

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