By: Doug Rosen
Looking at this pair I see that we had a slight bearish reaction. Price obviously bounced off the upper Bollinger Band and reacted to the fib zone we are in. Looking at the daily chart I see the new daily candle bouncing off the 21 ema which also happens to be a bullish fib zone. The stochastic indicator has just crossed down out of the overbought fib of the recent move up and has found its way back within the Bollinger Bands. However, price is still below the 4 hour 5 ema, so we need to see if price is just going to keep riding the 5 ema down or if it will rollover to the upside.
Now, zooming into the 1 hour chart I see that the 5 and 13 ema's are very close to each other which means the 5 could cross above the 13 and if that does it will be a bullish event and it could mean that this pair will start heading back up. On the other hand, the upper Bollinger band is closing ina nd pointing straight down an the 21 ema is overlapped with last weeks low, overlapped with the Bollinger Band so that could also cause price to fall downward.
Finally, on the 15 minute chart price is being forced down by the 55 ema and the Bollinger bands are narrow with the upper Bollinger Band pointing down and a stochastics up in the overbought zone. If price breaks above the 55 ema then this would be the first sign price is going to go up. At this moment, the way it looks like to me, price will more than likely begin to drop. Bare in mind, if this pair drops, this will be USD weakness and I already established in my EUR/GBP analysis possible EUR strength so correlate the two together, we may be looking at reasons to long the EUR/USD.ht zone which can be bearish in nature and price could reverse fib off the 21 ema, touch the 5 ema which is looking like it wants to cross below the 1 ema and force price down so it is a little too soon to know what will happen but this is something we need to watch for. Looking at the 4 hour chart I can clearly see that the stochastics is in the oversold zone and price has reacted to the 78.6.
